Your state-by-county recognition analysis used because of the You

Your state-by-county recognition analysis used because of the You

Despite its restrictions, brand new Essential Statistics gives the top offered analysis that in order to imagine the latest federal divorce proceedings speed in 1990. S. Census Agency personnel suggests that marital incidents investigation on the ACS and you can U.S. Important Statistics (like the DRA decide to try) was comparable ( Elliott ainsi que al., 2010). Prices for more the past few years commonly you’ll given that federal bodies discontinued brand new distinctive line of essential statistics on marriage ceremonies and you can divorces on county top into the 1996.

With the intention that the email address details are sturdy, we performed a supplemental investigation of the restricting the 2010 ACS study to only the brand new DRA shot says where age at the time of separation and divorce was claimed inside the 1990. The outcomes using this supplemental analysis are almost identical to the individuals according to research by the whole nation, suggesting the increase in the fresh split up speed is not an artifact from as well as ACS research from the states.

Analytical Means

Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p < .01>

R esults

As the found from inside the Profile 1, the newest divorce or separation rates have twofold due to the fact 1990, ascending out of cuatro.9 so you can 10.1 divorced persons each 1,000 married persons. It development belies the overall trend regarding the U.S. divorce case rates during this time, that has been fundamentally apartment from the 19.0 in the 1990 and you will 17.9 in 2010 (effect maybe not revealed). The new increasing of your price out of splitting up certainly one of center-aged and you may older adults means a substantial escalation in the brand new amount of people aged fifty and elderly just who feel split up. Inside 1990, whenever 206,007 somebody old 50 and you may older got separated, whereas in 2010 in the 643,152 got separated. To help you contextualize that it pattern, consider you to less than 1 in 10 persons who separated from inside the 1990 try aged fifty and you can older compared with more step one in 4 today (impact perhaps not shown). In addition, and if the fresh breakup rates stays ongoing along the 2nd twenty years-a traditional expectation in line with the present development-what amount of individuals aged 50 and you can older who would sense divorce or separation from inside the 2030 create go up by the one third so you’re able to over 828,380 (authors’ calculation based on years-particular projected people sizes into the 2030 [ U.S. Census Bureau, 2004]), reflecting the fresh new quickening development in the newest more mature human population which can exists over the next 20 years.